Spatial analysis of volcanic ash dispersion from Popocatépetl: probability estimation and influence area mapping in a risk context

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Published: Jun 30, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igg.25940694e.2025.1.125

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José Agustín García Reynoso
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Ciudad de México, México
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7718-9241
Bertha Eugenia Mar-Morales
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Ciudad de México, México
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9076-9865

Abstract

Maps of volcanic ash deposition probability and arrival time at the surface are presented, key tools for volcanic risk management at Popocatepetl. These maps were generated from Fall3D ash dispersion forecasts between 2017 and 2022, considering hypothetical eruptions of 3, 5 and 10 km height, with a duration of one hour and a dispersion simulation of nine hours. Using the Hazardmaps code, the probability of deposition ≥100 g/m² and its arrival time were estimated, visualized using ArcGIS from NetCDF files. The maps cover an area of 400 x 400 km around the crater, excluding deposits outside this region. The probabilities shown are ≥2%. This study represents the most comprehensive analysis carried out for the region, incorporating multiple meteorological conditions and eruptive column height scenarios defined from observed eruptive activity over the past 30 years. It provides a detailed description of areas of volcanic ash influence not previously observed in the field, improving the understanding of volcanic risk.

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How to Cite
García Reynoso, J. A., & Mar-Morales, B. E. (2025). Spatial analysis of volcanic ash dispersion from Popocatépetl: probability estimation and influence area mapping in a risk context . Terra Digitalis, 9(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.22201/igg.25940694e.2025.1.125
Issue
Vol 9 No 1 (2025)
Section
Articles with maps
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author Biographies

José Agustín García Reynoso, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Ciudad de México, México

Academic qualifications:

  • Bachelor's degree, Chemical Engineer, UNAM.
  • Master's degree in Engineering (environmental), UNAM.
  • PhD in Sciences, UNAM.
  • Postdoctoral degree, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.


Lines of research:

  • Air quality modeling.
  • Risk from atmospheric pollutants

Bertha Eugenia Mar-Morales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Ciudad de México, México

Academic background:

  • Chemical Engineering. Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa Zone.
    Master's in Chemistry, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla.

Lines of research:

  • Study of the processes that regulate greenhouse gas emissions, ozone precursors and suspended particles, their emissions inventories and energy consumption.
  • Documentation of the concentrations of these species in the atmosphere in different urban and rural environments.
  • Studies of the processes that regulate the chemical and physical transformations of these species in the atmosphere and their transport.

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