Spatial relationship between disaster declarations and vulnerability in Mexico

Abstract

This study analyzes the spatial relationships between "disaster declarations" and vulnerability in Mexico in the period 2000-2020, using official historical data from CENAPRED on disaster declarations and poverty levels from CONEVAL. Through statistical and spatial regression tools, the relationships between vulnerability and the frequency of events that exceed the capacities of a local government to address them were evaluated; The frequency of exposure to a threat is not evaluated, since the declarations do not document all the threats that materialize, but only those that produce the greatest impacts. The disasters considered were exclusively geological, hydrometeorological and climatic (droughts). The fundamental contribution is the preparation of vulnerability maps, at the municipal level, which identify priority areas for attention and management. The results show that exposure is the main factor associated with disasters, but conditions of vulnerability significantly amplify impacts and condition recovery. The findings highlight deep territorial inequalities and underscore the importance of integrating these analyses to design targeted strategies, considering local particularities and promoting more equitable and efficient risk management.